Global Warming Program Reports
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Executive Summary
Extensive scientific evidence demonstrates that global
warming is real, that it is affecting us now, and that human
activities—particularly the burning of fossil fuels—are the primary cause.
Science is also clear about what we need to do to address
the problem: immediately and significantly reduce emissions of the pollutants
that cause global warming. Avoiding the worst consequences of global warming
will require the United
States and other industrialized countries to
stabilize emissions within the next decade and reduce them by about 80 percent
by midcentury.
Achieving those reductions won’t be easy, but it can be
done. By improving the efficiency with which we use fossil fuels and increasing
our use of clean, renewable energy, the United
States can reduce its global warming emissions in the
near future, while putting America
on a path toward dramatically lower global warming emissions in the decades to
come.
This report lists six challenging but feasible strategies
that, if implemented, could achieve these reductions, while improving America’s
environment and our energy security.
Global warming is real, is happening now, and poses a
serious threat to America’s
future.
- Global
average temperatures increased by 1˚ F in the 20th century and are now
increasing at a rate of about 0.36˚ F per decade. Sea levels are on the
rise, ice and snow cover are decreasing, and hurricane intensity has
increased.
- The
consensus view of the scientific community is that most of the global
warming that has occurred is due to human activities—particularly the
burning of fossil fuels. Fossil fuel consumption releases carbon dioxide,
which traps the sun’s radiation near the earth’s surface. Since 1750, the
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by 35 percent—a
rate of increase unprecedented in the last 20,000 years.
- Should
the world continue on its present course, global warming emissions could
triple in the next half century, with global temperatures increasing by 8˚
F by 2100. Sea levels would rise by one and a half feet (and possibly
more), threatening low-lying coastal areas. And the ecological balance
upon which life depends would be irrevocably altered.
The United
States has a responsibility to take
leadership in reducing global warming pollution.
- The United States
is far and away the world’s largest global warming polluter, accounting
for 23 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions.
- Should
current trends continue, by 2030 the United States will emit 37
percent more carbon dioxide than it does today, increasing the likelihood
of dramatic global climate change.
- To
avoid the worst consequences of global warming, scientists believe that
the United States
needs to stabilize emissions within a decade, begin reducing them soon
thereafter, and cut global warming pollution by 80 percent by the middle
of this century.
The United
States can achieve significant reductions in
global warming pollution by improving the energy efficiency of our economy and
using more renewable energy.
The United
States can reduce its global warming
emissions by as much as 19 percent by 2020 by taking a set of aggressive but
achievable steps toward improved energy efficiency and increased use of
renewable energy, within the context of mandatory limits on global warming
pollution.
1) Stabilize vehicle travel. Americans drive nearly twice as
many miles per year as they did a quarter-century ago, leading to increased
emissions of global warming pollutants. Americans are already cutting back on
driving as a result of higher gasoline prices, but many Americans have few
realistic alternatives to driving. Through changes in public policy and
development patterns, Americans can be given more transportation choices, thus
reducing the growth in vehicle travel. Such changes include:
- Encouraging
the development of compact neighborhoods with a mix of land uses, where
more tasks can be completed by foot, bike or transit.
- Expanding
the reach and improving the quality of transit service.
- Supporting
programs to encourage carpooling, vanpooling, telecommuting and other
alternatives to single-passenger car travel.
2) Increase vehicle fuel economy standards to 40 miles per
gallon and set fuel economy standards for large trucks. The creation of federal
fuel economy standards for cars during the 1970s succeeded in reducing gasoline
consumption and oil imports, as well as global warming pollution. But the fuel
economy of new vehicles is now lower than it was during most of the Reagan
administration.
Several recent studies show that we could increase the fuel
economy of new vehicles to 40 miles per gallon within the next decade using
technologies that already exist or will be available soon. All types of vehicles—
from SUVs to compacts—can be designed to be far more energy efficient. And most
of the improvements in fuel economy can actually save money for consumers over
the long term, especially with gasoline prices at nearly $3 per gallon.
Similarly, major improvements in fuel economy are possible for heavy-duty
trucks, which are currently exempt from fuel economy standards.
3) Replace 10 percent of vehicle fuel with biofuels or other
clean alternatives. Ethanol and biodiesel that are produced cleanly and sustainably
have the potential to significantly reduce global warming emissions from
transportation—especially if these biofuels are produced from plant wastes and
cellulose. Other vehicle technologies—like “plug-in” hybrids, electric vehicles
and fuel cell vehicles—have the potential to dramatically reduce global warming
emissions in the future.
4) Reduce energy consumption in homes, business and industry
by 10 percent from current levels. Dramatic improvements in energy efficiency
are possible in virtually every aspect of American life. Studies show that we
could reduce our electricity consumption by as much as 20 percent at no net
cost to the economy. For now, the U.S. can encourage weatherization
of buildings, deployment of more efficient appliances and equipment, and
efficiency improvements in industry. Soon, using new technologies such as those
in zero-energy homes, we can transform the way we consume energy and achieve
even larger improvements in efficiency.
5) Obtain 20 percent of our electricity from new renewable
energy sources. America
has virtually limitless potential for the generation of power from natural
forces. By ramping up our use of wind power, solar power, geothermal and
biomass energy and other renewable forms of energy—and using much of that
energy to replace power production at dirty, coalfired power plants—the United
States could dramatically reduce global warming emissions from electric power
production.
6) Hold emissions from other sources to current levels. The
five strategies listed above would address the largest sources of energy use
and global warming emissions in the United States But some other sources of
global warming pollution—such as emissions from air travel and emissions of
some non-carbon dioxide global warming gases—are projected to increase
significantly in the years ahead. The United States must remain vigilant
about stabilizing, and eventually reducing, global warming pollution from all
sectors of the economy. Mandatory limits on global warming emissions would help
to achieve that goal.
These six steps would enable the United States to reduce its global
warming emissions by 19 percent below 2004 levels by 2020.
Taking these six steps would reduce U.S. carbon
dioxide emissions by about 23 percent and global warming emissions by about 19
percent by 2020. (See Table ES-1.)
Table ES-1. Global Warming Emission Impact of the Six Steps
(million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent) Strategy Savings MMTCO2E
Stabilize Vehicle Travel 0* 40 MPG Fuel Economy and Heavy-Duty Truck Fuel
Economy Standards 383 10% of Transportation Fuel from Renewables 61 10%
Reduction in Energy Consumption 400 20% of Electricity from New Renewables 511
Total Savings 1355 2004 U.S. Global Warming Emissions 7122 Reduction Relative
to 2004 19% * Avoids increase in emissions resulting from projected increases
in vehicle travel between now and 2020.
In addition, taking these steps will reverse the trajectory
of global warming emissions, putting the United States on a path to
achieving the even greater reductions in global warming pollution that will be
required in the decades to come. The United States
should adopt a series of public policies designed to quickly and significantly
reduce emissions of global warming pollutants:
Cap global warming emissions. The United States should establish
mandatory, science-based limits on carbon dioxide and other global warming
pollutants that reduce emissions from today’s levels within 10 years, by 15-20
percent by 2020, and by 80 percent by 2050.
Adopt complementary policies to reduce global warming
emissions. The United States
should adopt policies that would achieve the targets laid out in this report,
including, but not limited to:
- Transportation
policies designed to reduce growth in vehicle travel and promote
alternatives to automobile travel.
- An
increase in federal fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks. •
Creation of federal fuel economy standards for heavy trucks.
- A
renewable fuel standard requiring a significant share of transportation
fuel to come from renewables by 2020.
- Policy
support for the development and introduction of plug-in hybrid, electric
and fuel-cell vehicles.
- Stronger
appliance efficiency standards, energy efficiency programs and other
policies designed to improve energy efficiency.
- A
federal renewable energy standard requiring a large and increasing share
of the nation’s electricity to come from renewable energy.
Encourage action at the state level. Federal action to
reduce global warming pollution should promote innovative approaches at the
state level and not impede individual states or groups of states from pursuing
policies that go above and beyond the commitments made by the federal
government.
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